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On average, the economists forecast an unemployment rate of at least 10%
through June 2010, with a decline to 9.5% by December next year.

"The mother of all jobless recoveries is coming down the pike," said Allen
Sinai of Decision Economics. But he doesn't favor more stimulus now, saying
"lags in monetary and fiscal policy actions" should be allowed to "work through
the system."

Like most respondents, Sinai said the bulk of the stimulus wouldn't be felt
until 2010. When asked how much the stimulus has helped the economy, 53% of
respondents said it has provided somewhat of a boost, but the larger effect is
still to come.

That sentiment echoes what the Obama administration has said about the
stimulus. While some top Democrats, such as Rep. Steny Hoyer of Maryland, have
said they are open to another round of stimulus, Rob Nabors, deputy director of
the Office of Management and Budget, said Wednesday that the administration
isn't discussing a new package.

Nicholas Perna of Perna Associates, one of the economists calling for more
stimulus, said more government aid is warranted. "The most obvious reason is
the need to offset the large fiscal drag just getting under way as state and
local governments raise taxes and cut spending as they attempt to balance their
budgets," he said.

Perna also noted that extended jobless benefits and medical-insurance
subsidies will be expiring in a few months.

Most economists appear content to take the wait-and-see approach, as on
average they are expecting the just-ended second quarter to be the last in
which gross domestic product contracts. They forecast growth rising more than
2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in the first half of 2010.

Meanwhile, the median forecast sees the end of the recession next month.

Some economists had other reasons for opposing the stimulus. More than a
third of respondents said the government package will have only a small effect
on the economy, while 6% said the stimulus has hurt the economy.

"There's no easy solution," said Ram Bhagavatula of Combinatorics Capital,
who says the first stimulus will provide only a modest boost. "Every time the
government gives money to consumers, it goes right into the bank. The consumer
needs to rebuild savings, and that's a long, slow process."

Most economists were generally supportive of the Obama administration's plan
to overhaul financial regulations. Some 44% said the proposal was acceptable
given political realities, while 15% said it would make the financial system
safer. Still, 23% said the plan will stifle innovation and hurt growth, and 19%
said it is a feeble attempt at addressing vulnerabilities exposed during the
crisis.

On average, the economists said there is a 65% chance a regulatory overhaul
in some form would be signed into law by this time next year. That compares
with the 50% chance they placed on climate-change or health-care legislation
passing in the next 12 months.

"After being dragged into TARP, the administration will want to be seen as
extracting a return for taxpayer," Bhagavatula said, referring to the Troubled
Asset Relief Program, in which the government moved to recapitalize banks. The
White House is "fully incentivized," Bhagavatula added.

The program, started under the Bush administration, has fueled populist anger
over government bailouts.

The administration's performance continues to divide economists. President
Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner both got median grades of
70 out of 100 for their handling of the financial crisis. That is better,
however, than the failing median grades of 50 and 60 for former President
George W. Bush and ex-Treasury chief Henry Paulson, respectively.

By contrast, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke remains at the head of the
class with a median grade of 85; 93% of respondents said he should be
reappointed by Obama in 2010.